概率分析法在污水海洋排放近区模拟中的应用

污水海洋排放时需要分析排放口近区的羽流几何特性和稀释特性，概率分析法是其中重要的方法之一．本文阐述了概率分析法的基本原理，通过实例演示了概率分析法应用于污水海洋排放近区模拟分析的过程． 根据概率分析法所提供的结果，总结了概率分析法的优点，即提供了排放口近区的全面信息，由此可以进行后续工作，如远区模拟和风险评估；结合实例， 指出了应用概率分析法的局限，它对输入信息量和计算速度（ 计算工作量） 的要求较高；随计算机运算速度的提高和自动监测技术的发展，应用概率分析法的这一局限可以克服，因此，概率分析法具有广阔的应用前景．

The application of probabilistic analysis approach in the near field modeling of ocean outfall

It is necessary to analyse the characteristics of the plume and initial dilution in the near field of ocean outfall. Probabilistic analysis approach is one of approaches applied in the analysis. In this paper, the principle of probabilistic analysis approach is addressed. Through a case study, how to apply this approach is demonstrated in the near field modeling of ocean outfall. From the results obtained, the merits of probabilistic analysis approach which provides a whole information of the near field,thus making the far field modeling and risk assessment available.Whereas,there exits limits in applying probabilistic analysis approach,that is, requiring a great deal of inputs and quickly computing because of the great amount of computing work. With the improvement of computing and automatic measurement, the limits of applying probabilistic analysis approach can be overcomed, and this approach can be widely used in future.