Model for estimation of traffic pollutant levels in northern communities

Using models to estimate the contribution of traffic to air pollution levels from known traffic data typically requires the knowledge of model parameters such as emission factors and meteorological conditions. This paper presents a state-space model analysis method that does not require the knowledge of model parameters; these parameters are identified from measured traffic and ambient air quality data. This method was used to analyze carbon monoxide (CO) in downtown Fairbanks, AK, which is the community of focus for this paper. It was found that traffic contributed, on average, 53% to the total CO levels over the last six winters. The correlation coefficient between the measured and model-predicted daily profiles of the CO concentration was 0.98, and the results were in good agreement with earlier findings obtained via a thorough CO emission inventory. This justified the usability of the method and it was further used to analyze fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in downtown Fairbanks. It was found that traffic contributed, on average, approximately 30% to the total PM2.5 levels over the last six winters. The correlation coefficient between the measured and model-predicted daily profiles of the PM2.5 concentration was 0.98.