21世纪源排放与大气CO2体积分数预测

简要介绍了IPCC在 2 0 0 0年 3月正式公布的 2 1世纪温室气体排放方案 ,利用一维全球碳循环模式及 7种代表性方案对 2 1世纪的大气CO2 体积分数进行预测。研究发现 :2 1世纪 ,大气CO2 体积分数增长速率将高于 2 0世纪 ,化石燃料源仍然是引起大气CO2 体积分数增长的主要原因 ;如果化石燃料仍为主要能源且它的碳排放量逐年增加 ,大气的碳吸收比例将不断升高 ,2 1世纪末大气CO2 体积分数可能超过 10 0 0×10 - 6 ;只有积极开发新能源 ,使化石燃料源源强逐年减小 ,才有可能使大气的碳吸收比例下降 ,若进一步改善土地利用状况 ,2 1世纪末大气CO2体积分数有望出现下降趋势

Projection of Emissions and CO2 Volume Fraction in the 21st Century

The emission scenarios were briefly introduced,which had been put forward by IPCC in the year of 2000.Then,with a simple global carbon cycle model,the atmospheric CO₂ volume fraction during the 21st century was projected.Results show that:(1)during the 21st century,atmospheric CO₂ volume fraction will increase and the increasing rate is higher than that of the 20th century.Fossil fuel source will have the dominant influence on the trend in atmospheric CO₂ volume fraction.(2)If fossil fuels were used as the main energy source,the portion of the anthropogenic carbon absorbed by the atmosphere would increase and the CO₂ volume fraction would exceed 1 000×10^-6 by the year of 2100.(3)Only can we manage to explore new energy and make the fossil fuel source intensity decrease year by year, the portion of the anthropogenic carbon absorbed by the atmosphere could decrease.If we further improve the land-use conditions,CO₂ volume fraction might decrease at the end of the 21st century.