山地农业种植结构演变特征及其调控途径分析——以贵州省为例

为分析山地农业种植结构的演变特征及其主要驱动因子,制定种植结构的调控途径,采用C-PCA耦合模型(典型主成分分析)对贵州省1949~2013年种植结构演变的15个驱动因子进行分析。结果表明:(1)贵州省1949~2013年种植结构逐渐向市场导向型转变,经济作物比重上升,粮食作物比重下降,粮食作物和经济作物产量分别以7.24%和2.95%的速率增长;(2)通过C-PCA耦合模型的贡献率得出种植结构演变的主要驱动因子为总人口、城市化水平、仓储运输业比重、年均气温、年降水量和农业人口比重,其对应累计贡献率达86.04%;(3)调控山地农业种植结构,不仅需要发展山地高效复合型农业,提高种植系统抗灾能力,还需借助农产品生产、加工、销售云平台实现农业的可持续发展,从而为山地农业经济的发展提供重要支撑。

ANALYSIS ON EVOLUTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL PLANTING STRUCTURE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREA AND ITS REGULATION——A CASE STUDY OF GUIZHOU PROVINCE

In order to analyze the evolution characteristics of planting structure in mountainous area,the main driving factors of planting structure,and to formulate regulation pathways of planting structure,the C-PCA coupling model (typical principal component analysis) was used in this paper to analyze the 15 driving factors of plant structure evolution from 1949 to 2013 in Guizhou Province.The results showed that:(1) The planting structure of 1949-2013 in Guizhou Province was gradually transformed to market oriented,with the proportion of economic crops increased and the proportion of grain crops decreased,and the growth rates of grain crops and economic crops were 7.24％ and 2.95％,respectively;(2) The contribution rate of C-PCA coupling model showed that the main driving factors of plant structure evolution are total population,urbanization level,storage and transportation proportion,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and agricultural population proportion,and their corresponding cumulative contribution rate is 86.04％;(3) To regulation the cropping structure in mountainous area,both high efficient agriculture,and large data and cloud platform are needed to realize the sustainable development of agriculture and provide important support for the development of agricultural economy in mountainous area.