中国省域能源消费碳排放时空异质性的EOF和GWR分析

利用自然正交函数(EOF)揭示中国各省份能源消费碳排放量变动的时空特征,借助地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析了碳排放量驱动因素的空间分布状况.研究结果表明:中国省域能源消费碳排放量整体处于增长状态,但其增长速度有减缓趋势;EOF第一模态结果显示,碳排放量以四川省为中心向南北方向扩散,低值区集中分布在西北地区和珠三角地区;第二模态结果显示,碳排放量增长速度表现出西南地区和东南沿海地区较快,而中部省份碳排放量增长速度较慢的态势.碳排放量影响因素的重要程度由大到小依次为:总人口变化量、人均GDP变化量、城镇化率变化量、二产比重变化量、贸易开放程度变化量和能源消耗强度变化量,其中,总人口变化量的影响程度最为剧烈,每当总人口变化1%时,碳排放量相应地会变化0.5358%.

Spatial-temporal analysis of provincial carbon emissions in China from 1997 to 2012 with EOF and GWR methods

This paper studied the spatial-temporal characteristics of provincial carbon emissions in China by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and analyzed the main driving forces of carbon emissions with the aid of geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The result shows that the provincial carbon emissions in whole China is keeping growth, but its growth has a slowing trend. The first mode of EOF shows that carbon emissions revolve around Sichuan province and diffuses to the north and south directions. Low-level regions cover the northwest and the Pearl River Delta region. The second mode reflects a rapid carbon emissions growth in the southwest and southeast coastal area. While in some central provinces, carbon emissions growth is low. The major factors influencing the carbon emission in a descending order include population variation, per capita GDP variation, urbanization rate variation, proportion of secundiparity variation, trade openness variation and energy consumption intensity variation. Among these factors, the influence of population variation is the most obvious. When population changes by 1%, the carbon emissions change 0.5358%. Only the energy consumption intensity has inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.