隧道渗涌水量的随机模型预测

渗涌水问题是常见的隧道病害 ,是影响隧道正常使用 ,危及行车安全的重要因素。因此 ,科学地预测隧道涌水量大小 ,是制定最优防治水方案 ,确保安全通车的关键。笔者以大瑶山隧道渗涌水量的实测数据为基础 ,应用随机过程的理论和方法 ,建立了隧道渗涌水量的平稳序列预测模型 ,并将预测值与实测结果进行了对比 ,比较吻合。

Predicting the Amount of Water Inflow in Tunnel by Stationary Random Model

Groundwater seepage and water inflow usually happen in tunnel, which have great impact on normal operation of the tunnel and threaten the traffic safety. Therefore, scientific prediction of the amount of water inflow is crucial in optimizing the control plan and in ensuring the traffic safety. Based on the measured data of water inflow in Dayaoshan tunnel, and applying the theory and method of random process, a stationary random sequence model predicting the amount of water inflow into the tunnel is set up. The predicted data agree well with the measured data proving the validity of this model.