系统动力学方法在城市生活垃圾产生系统的应用

准确预测城市生活垃圾产生量是构建与运行生活垃圾管理系统的首要条件. 我国大部分城市生活垃圾的历史统计数据稀缺，传统预测方法往往难以得到要求精度的预测结果. 在系统地分析生活垃圾产生量影响因素及因素间互动关系的基础上，建立了基于VENSIM软件的系统动力学模型，并将该模型应用于深圳市城市生活垃圾产生系统. 结果表明:运用系统动力学方法可以较好地进行城市生活垃圾产生量预测，解决了数据稀缺条件下城市生活垃圾产生量的精确预测问题，为处理处置工艺的选择和规模的确定提供了数据支撑，同时可以在垃圾产生量预测的基础上进行不同政策下系统的行为模拟. 

The Application of System Dynamics Method in Municipal Solid Waste Generation System

To accurately forecast municipal solid waste (MSW) generation amount is the first thing in successful construction and running of MSW management system. But traditional forecasting methods are commonly difficult to obtain results with a required precision because of the lack of historical statistical data in most cities in China. On the basis of systematically analyzing the effect factors of MSW generation as well as the interaction of these factors, a system dynamics (SD) model based on VENSIM software was established. Then the model was applied in the MSW generation system of Shenzhen City. The result indicated that SD method was good at doing MSW generation forecasting. It can resolve the accurate-forecasting problem of MSW in the condition of having no enough historical data,and offers data support to selection of disposal techniques and decision-makingof disposal scale. At the same time, the model can be used to do system-behavior simulation under different policies on the base of generation forecasting, so as to offer decision-marking evidences for policy control.