重庆市区城市建设用地预测研究

重庆市作为西部唯一的中央直辖市和长江上游地区最大的经济、文化、商贸中心,在西部大开发中扮演十分重要的角色。重庆市是一个典型的山地丘陵城市,地形起伏大,工程地质条件复杂,施工难度大而且建设费用高,极大地限制了重庆市城市建设的发展。再加上受以前城市建设政策的影响,重庆市的城市建设发展缓慢。城市建设用地长期不足。为此必须加快重庆市城市建设步伐,重点放在搞好城市建设规划,加强城市基础设施建设上。首先要做好城市建设用地预测,以便为规划提供科学依据。从重庆市城市建设用地的实际情况出发,采用目前应用广泛的灰色系统分析法GM(1．1)预测了重庆市区城市非农业人口规模,进而测算出城市人口规模,并根据几种可能的人均用地水平预测了未来重庆市区城市建设用地规模。

PREDICTION OF URBAN BUILDING LAND IN CHONGQING CITY

As the sole municipality directly under the Central Government in West China and the biggest center of economics, culture and merchandise trade in the upper reaches of Changjiang river, Chongqing will play a very important role in the future "the Great Development in West China". Chongqing is a typical mountainous City again with its terrains fiercely undulate,and its engineering geological conditions are very complicated, its construction is very difficulty and costly, so the development of urban construction in Chongqing is severely refrained. Besides, it was deeply affected by the national policy of urban construction.Its urban building land is always not sufficient , which is far away from its status and its role it played.Therefore we must speed the urban construction in Chongqing, put emphases on the urban construction planning and strengthen the construction of the basic utilities in Chongqing City. At first we must make scientific prediction on urban building land to provide a scientific proof for city planning. Start from the present actual situation of the urban building land in Chongqing City, this paper apply the analytical method of Grey System GM(1.1),which is used extensively, to predict the population of non-agriculture in Chongqing City proper and further calculate the urban population.On the basis of the possible levels of the urban building land per capita, it predict the future scale of urban building land in Chongqing City proper.