情景分析技术在制定区域大气复合污染控制方案中的应用研究

目前我国区域性大气复合污染日益严重,迫切需要明晰的控制技术路线指引。本文尝试将情景分析技术应用于区域复合污染控制方案制定中。建立了包括确定主题、驱动力筛选、驱动力预测、排放量预测和情景构建等步骤的情景设计方法。并利用本文建立的方法,详细介绍了在构建区域大气复合污染压力-状态-响应模型的基础上,利用主要驱动力与压力之间的数学关系,进行驱动力预测、构建基线情景和控制情景的方法。讨论了在制定区域协同控制方案过程中,确定满足区域总量控制目标的分区减排原则,并提出实现区域协同控制区域性大气复合污染的控制目标的分区削减方案情景设计的方法建议。

Research of Scenario Analysis Application in Regional Compound Air Pollution Control Decision-making

Based on the present characteristicofregional compound air pollution in China, the scenarioanalysisandpressure-state- response model are used to forecast the possibility emission condition in urban agglomerationinthefuture.In this paper, by using rank correlation analysis to screen main driving force, with pollutants emissions to present pressure, the air quality concentration to present the state, and the pollutants emission reduction scale for the response, major air pollutants in situations of the baseline scenar- iocan be forecast according to the mathematical relationship between the driving force and the pressure. Based on the baseline scene, combined with the social development and environmental planning in region, make the effectivecombination of different control measuresfrom four aspects, including the energy structure, GDP, key industries and the key sources of pollution, form the medium scheme and high scheme under dynamic targets of pollutants emission control.According to the overall thinking of the regional coordination control, three types of partition cut plan are constructed, which are uniform, emissions contribution reduction and regional contributionreduction.As the preliminary exploration, this paper is to construct a set of decision support prototype framework for regional compound air pollution.