产业转移视角下京津冀石化产业碳排放因素分解与减排潜力分析

石化产业是我国经济的支柱性产业，但其大量的碳排放却给环境造成严重负担，因此提倡石化产业低碳发展能有效推动京津冀区域经济与环境绿色均衡发展.基于产业转移视角，分析2007-2016年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量现状；运用对数平均迪式分解（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index，LMDI）法分解并分析京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量影响因素在三地的作用效果，进而借助产业竞争力系数佐证碳排放量影响因素作用效果在区域间的关联性；最后通过合理调整京津冀区域石化产业能源结构，将未调整和调整后的能源结构类型分别设置为基准情境和低碳情境，利用SPSS拟合最优曲线来预测2017-2030年京津冀区域石化产业减排潜力.结果表明:①2007-2016年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量增加386.79×104 t，碳排放强度由0.77 t/（104元）降至0.31 t/（104元）.②2007-2016年，能源强度因素使京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量减少13 663.77×104 t，其贡献率高达148.38%；人均GDP因素促使石化产业碳排放量增加12 327.10×104 t，贡献率达110.69%.③对于石化产业竞争力系数，北京市由0.03降至-0.02，为三地石化产业转出地；河北省由-0.14增至0.16，为转入地.④在低碳情境下，2020年、2030年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量分别比基准情境减少502.84×104、528.95×104 t，碳排放强度分别降至0.19、0.17 t/（104元），均达到发展目标的要求.研究显示，2007-2016年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量逐年上升，承受巨大减排压力，该区域可以通过调整石化产业能源结构来挖掘碳减排潜力，推动石化产业绿色发展. 

Analysis of Carbon Emission Factors Decomposition and Emission Reduction Potential of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Petrochemical Industry from the Perspective of Industrial Transfer

The petrochemical industry is the pillar industry of China''s economy, but its massive carbon emission causes a heavy burden on the environment. Therefore, advocating the low-carbon development in the petrochemical industry can effectively promote the balanced development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional economy and the environment. Based on the perspective of industrial transfer, this paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry from 2007 to 2016; Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to decompose and analyze the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry in three places, the effect of the industry''s competitiveness coefficient is used to prove the effect of the influence factors of carbon emissions on the inter-regional relationship. Finally, by reasonably adjusting the energy structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry and setting the unadjusted and adjusted energy structure types as the baseline scenario and the low-carbon scenario, the optimal SPSS fitting optimal curve is used to predict the emission reduction potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry from 2017 to 2030. The results are as follows:(1) From 2007 to 2016, the carbon emission of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry increased by 386.79×10⁴ t, and the carbon emission intensity decreased from 0.77 t/(10⁴ RMB) to 0.31 t/(10⁴ RMB). (2) From 2007 to 2016, the energy intensity factor reduced the carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry by 13,663.77×10⁴ t, and its contribution rate was as high as 148.38%; the per capita GDP factor increased the carbon emissions of the petrochemical industry by 12,327.10×10⁴ t, with a contribution rate of 110.69%. (3) For the petrochemical industry competitiveness coefficient, Beijing dropped from 0.03 to -0.02, which was the transfer place of the three petrochemical industries; Hebei Province increased from -0.14 to 0.16, which was transferred to the land. (4) In the low-carbon situation, the carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry in 2020 and 2030 were reduced by 502.84×10⁴ and 528.95×10⁴ t, respectively, and the carbon emission intensity decreased to 0.19 and 0.17 t/(10⁴ RMB), respectively, all of them meet the requirements of development goals. The research shows that the carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional petrochemical industry increased from 2007 to 2016, and it was under tremendous pressure to reduce emissions. The region can tap the carbon emission reduction potential by adjusting the energy structure of the petrochemical industry to promote the green development of the petrochemical industry.