农业巨灾影响下农民风险态度的行为经济学分析

通过借鉴行为经济学前景理论分析框架，构建了判定农业巨灾风险下农民风险态度的抽象模型。分析表明，面对农业巨灾风险，由于外界环境的不确定和信息不对称等因素的影响，农民对农业巨灾风险的认知能力不足，有限理性的实现程度偏低。同时，受非贝叶斯法则、代表性法则、锚定效应、从众行为和框架效应等的外界偏差性行为显著干扰的情况下，农民非理性选择很大程度上会主导个体的行为，农民极易出现风险偏好的倾向。

Analysis on Behavioral Economics of Farmer's Attitude towards Risk under the Influence of Agriculture Catastrophe

Using the framework of prospect theory of behavioral economics for reference, an abstract model is developed to judge farmer's attitude towards risk under the influence of agriculture catastrophe. Analysis shows that, facing with agricultural catastrophic risk, due to the influence of external environment of uncertainty and information asymmetry, farmer's ability to cognize agricultural catastrophic risk is weak and degree of realization of bounded rationality is low. At the same time, subjecting to the significant interference of external deviances, such as non-Bayesian rule, representative rule, anchoring effect, herd behavior and framing effect, farmer's non-rational choice, to a large extent, may dominate individual behavior and lead to risk preference.