南水北调中线丹江口库区土地生产潜力估算

以土地生产潜力与承载力理论为基础,以南水北调中线工程主要淹没区和水源地——丹江口库区耕地为研究对象,在遥感影像、DEM、气象、土壤等数据支持下建立模型,利用潜力递减法估算丹江口库区的土地生产潜力,同时对土地资源人口承载力进行研究。估算结果表明:研究区不同作物、不同耕作制度下的最大生产潜力与现实生产力有很大差距,在现有粮食生产水平下,库区未淹没耕地的情况下,库区的人口承载力现状已经很差,当水位达到170 m后,库区人口承载力将进一步恶化。但是,研究区作物的现实生产力还有很大的提高余地,若在移民的前提下,深入挖掘土地生产潜力,因地制宜的选择合适的耕作制度,库区的土地承载力还可以有所提高。

ESTIMATION OF LAND PRODUCTIVITY POTENTIAL IN DANJIANGKOU RESERVOIR AREA OF MIDDLE ROUTE OF SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

This article took cultivated land of Danjiangkou Reservoir area as the research object,and used land potential productivity method and bearing capacity evaluating model.With the support of RS image,DEM,and data of meteorological,hydrology and soil,Land potential productivity estimate model was established.With the support of geographic information system,LPP was computed according to the factors such as radiation,temperature,precipitation and soil using mechanism method.Estimation results show that the maximum production potential and actual productivity of Danjiangkou Reservoir area had great distance with different crops and different farming systems.The actual productivity still had very big increasing leeway.Environmental capacity of reservoir area was inclining to saturation,and the future land population supporting capacity did not increase but was smaller than the present environmental capacity.However,the actual productivity of crops in the study area still had room for improvement.If under the premise of migration,multiple cropping could gain even greater population supporting capacity.