长江三角洲地区耕地总量动态平衡政策目标实现的可能性分析

在分析中国耕地总量动态平衡政策产生背景及区域耕地数量变化驱动因素的基础上,通过建立耕地总量动态平衡政策运行效果评价的社会经济影响因素分析模型,根据当前长江三角洲地区社会经济发展的趋势,认为2005年这一地区是有可能实现耕地总量动态平衡这一政策目标的。但是,2010年该地区耕地拥有量将与耕地总量动态平衡目标相差9.12%,因而实现耕地总量动态平衡的难度较大。同时,研究区域所属的11个城市耕地总量动态平衡政策目标实现的可能性也不一样,具体有4种类型:一是可以实现平衡的,为江苏省泰州市和浙江省湖州市;二是较难实现平衡的,有江苏省南通市、镇江市、常州市和浙江省嘉兴市;三是难以实现平衡的,有江苏省南京市、苏州市、无锡市和扬州市;四是实现平衡可能性不大的,为上海市。同时,文章还认为耕地质量的改善对于区域耕地保护具有实质性的积极意义。

Possibility of Realizing Dynamic Balance of Farmland Area in the Yangtze River Delta

China has implemented important economic policy of reforms during the1980s and1990s.And there was an urgent need to restructure the economy to improve macroeconomic per-formances.Drastic economic measures like abolition of prices subsides,devaluation of exchange rates,liberalization of international trade,and privatization of public enterprises characterize most of the reforms.In recent years,it is increasingly recognized that such fundamental eco-nomic changes may have important effects on the resources especially farmland.Given that,from mid-1990s,China begins to enforce dynamic balance of farmland area(DBFA)to satisfy the demand of land use for agriculture and non-agriculture sectors.The possibility of DBFA was pre dicted in research area of the Yangtze River Delta by modeling the driving forces of farmland change.According to the results of modeling,it is possible to realize DBFA in2005,and about 9.12%shortage of farmland area compared with the protected area in2010in the Yangtze River Delta.The possibility is different for11cities in the research area.It is possible to realize DB-FA in Taizhou City of Jiangsu and Huzhou City of Zhejiang.It is difficult to realize DBFA in cities of Nantong,Zhenjiang and Changzhou of Jiangsu Province and Jiaxing City of Zhejiang Province.It is more difficult to realize DBFA in cities of Nanjing,Wuxi,Suzhou and Yangzhou of Jiangsu Province.For Shanghai City,it is almost impossible to realize DBFA,and the short-age rates of farmland area are respectively20.01%and33.95%in2005and2010.The research results also show the cost is high if DBFA should be realized.Based on the analysis of DBFA policy system,some suggestions on reforming the policy implementation system have been given at last.