人群应急疏散模型构建及疏散效率分析研究*

为更系统地分析社会网络内预警传播对人群疏散效率影响，以江苏德桥仓储有限公司“4·22”较大火灾事故为背景，构建人群应急疏散模型，模拟不同预警策略应用下社会预警传播及人群疏散动态过程，分析不同情景动态演化特征。研究结果表明:高效预警策略确保多数人被预警、疏散的同时，会造成人群集聚性疏散，引发严重交通拥堵，需采取有效方法降低交通实时承载量，保障疏散速度，进一步提升疏散效率。研究结果可为完善应急疏散方案提供借鉴。

Construction of personnel emergency evacuation model and evacuation efficiency analysis

To systemically analyze the influence of warning propagation in social network on the crowd evacuation efficiency,a crowd emergency evacuation model was constructed by taking the Jiangsu Deqiao Storage Co.,Ltd.，“4·22” larger fire accident as background.The dynamic processes of warning propagation and crowd evacuation using different warning strategies were simulated,and the dynamic evolution features of different scenarios were analyzed.The results showed that although more people could be warned and more people would evacuate using the efficient warning strategy,but it would cause the concentrated crowd evacuation and serious traffic congestion.For further improving the evacuation efficiency,some effective methods should be adopted to reduce the real-time traffic capacity and guarantee the evacuation speed.The research results can provide reference for improving the emergency evacuation schemes.