基于FBN地铁深基坑施工渗漏风险评估模型及应用*

为了解决由于地铁深基坑施工风险因素不确定性和基坑工程事故资料缺失导致传统风险分析方法不再满足实际需要的问题。探讨模糊集理论(FST)和贝叶斯网络(BN)的结合，介绍1种专家置信度指标，建立地铁深基坑渗漏风险评估指标体系，得到基于模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)地铁深基坑施工渗漏风险评估模型。研究结果表明:将该方法应用于广州地铁十三号线某车站深基坑施工渗漏风险评估中，结果符合施工实际，接缝密封质量差等风险因素需加以措施控制，该方法可为后续施工风险评估提供实时支持。

Risk assessment model of leakage in deep foundation pit construction of subway based on FBN and its application

In order to solve the problem that the traditional risk analysis method no longer meets the actual needs due to the uncertainty of the risk factors of the subway deep foundation pit construction and the lack of accident data of the foundation pit construction,this paper discussed the combination of Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and Bayesian Network(BN),and introduced an expert confidence index,an index system of leakage risk assessment for the deep foundation pit of subway was established,and a leakage risk assessment model for the deep foundation pit,which was proposed based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network(FBN).This method has applied to evaluate the construction leakage risk of a foundation pit which is a Station of Guangzhou Metro Line 13.The results show that the method was consistent with construction practice,and the risk factors such as poor sealing quality need to be controlled,this method could provide real-time support for subsequent construction risk assessment.