海底隧道交通事故风险耦合演化机理研究*

为明晰海底隧道交通系统内部风险因素之间的耦合关联和事故演化机理，从驾驶人、道路、车辆、环境和管理5方面阐释海底隧道风险因素内涵，定性分析风险因素之间的耦合作用，建立海底隧道交通事故风险演化立体网络模型，提出海底隧道风险因素量化评价标准；并构建海底隧道交通事故风险耦合尖点突变模型，深入分析海底隧道交通系统风险状态演化的主要形式；结合应用实例，对海底隧道风险因素耦合进行计算评价。结果表明:多因素耦合对海底隧道交通系统产生的风险影响大于单因素耦合，驾驶人因素风险相对最大，车辆因素风险相对最小，并从人、物2个因素方面提出针对性的事故风险预防措施。研究结果可为海底隧道交通安全管控提供理论参考和借鉴。

Study on coupling evolution mechanism of traffic accident risk in undersea tunnel

In order to clarify the coupling association of internal risk factors and accident evolution mechanism of the undersea tunnel traffic system,the connotation of risk factors of the undersea tunnel was explained from five aspects including the driver,road,vehicle,environment and management,and the coupling effect between risk factors was analyzed qualitatively.A three-dimensional network model of risk evolution for the traffic accidents in undersea tunnel was established,and the quantitative evaluation criteria of the risk factors of undersea tunnel were put forward.A cusp catastrophe model of the traffic accident risk coupling of undersea tunnel was constructed,and the main forms of risk state evolution of undersea tunnel traffic system were deeply analyzed.Combined with an application example,the risk factors coupling of undersea tunnel was calculated and evaluated.The results showed that the risk impact of multiple factors coupling on the undersea tunnel traffic system was greater than that of single factor coupling,the driver factor had the relatively greatest risk,and the vehicle factor had the relatively least risk.Finally,the targeted prevention measures of accident risk were put forward from two factors of human and object.The results can provide theoretical reference for the traffic safety management and control of undersea tunnels.