基于STPA和模糊BN的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险分析*

为有效评估装配式建筑吊装施工中的安全风险状态，识别关键风险因素，运用系统理论过程分析方法(STPA)构建吊装施工过程中的控制反馈结构，识别导致危险的不安全控制行为，确定不安全控制行为的致因因素；基于风险因素间的关联关系构建贝叶斯网络（BN）模型，推理计算装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险状态概率，并结合反向诊断推理分析影响安全事故的风险因素；通过敏感性分析，识别装配式建筑吊装施工安全中的关键风险因素。结果表明:装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险处于低风险状态；起重机械超负荷运行、现场安全管理不到位和吊索吊具存在缺陷等因素是影响装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险的关键风险因素。

Safety risk analysis on hoisting construction of prefabricated building based on STPA and fuzzy BN

In order to effectively evaluate the safety risk status in the hoisting construction of prefabricated buildings and identify the key risk factors,firstly,the system theoretic process analysis (STPA) was applied to construct the control feedback structure in the hoisting construction peocess,identify the unsafe control behavior leading to hazard,and determine the causation factors of the unsafe control behavior,thus a list of risk factors was formed.Then the Bayesian network (BN) model was built based on the correlation between risk factors,and the forward causal inference of fuzzy BN was used to calculate the state probability of safety risk in the hoisting construction of prefabricated building,and the risk factors affecting safety accidents were analyzed combined with the reverse diagnostic inference.Finally,the sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key risk factors for the hoisting construction safety of prefabricated building.The results showed that the safety risk level of the hoisting construction of prefabricated building was in a low-risk state，and the factors such as overload operation of hoisting machinery,inadequate on-site safety management and defects in the sling spreader were the key risk factor affecting the safety risk in the hoisting construction of prefabricated building.