基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估*

为了更好地降低化工企业罐区事故造成多米诺效应的风险，提出1种基于保护层分析（LOPA）的定量风险评估程序。首先,阐述基于保护层分析(LOPA)逻辑的多米诺定量风险评估流程，即引入包括可用性、有效性及3种逻辑门定义及量化的安全屏障定量评估；然后，利用LOPA的分析逻辑将安全屏障融入多米诺定量风险评估框架中；最后，选取2×2 000 m3苯乙烯罐区为对象，识别防火层与喷淋冷却系统2种安全屏障并开展基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估，得出安全屏障能有效地降低多米诺事故发生频率及罐区个人风险的结论。研究结果表明:该分析方法可为化工企业开展多米诺效应定量风险评估提供参考。

Quantitative risk assessment of domino effect in tank farm based on LOPA logic

In order to better reduce the risk of domino effect caused by accidents in chemical enterprises’ tank farms,a quantitative risk assessment procedure based on Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) is proposed.Firstly,the procedure of quantitative risk assessment of domino effect based on the layer of protection analysis (LOPA) logic was elaborated,namely introducing into the quantitative assessment of safety barrier including the definition and quantification of availability,effectiveness and three kinds of logic gates.Secondly,the safety barriers were integrated into the quantitative risk assessment framework of domino effect by using the LOPA’ s analytical logic.Finally,a 2×2 000 m3 styrene tank farm was selected,the fireproof coating and water deluge system were identified as safety barriers,and the quantitative risk assessment of domino effect based on the LOPA logic was carried out,which concluded that the safety barriers could effectively reduce the frequency of domino accidents and the individual risk in tank farm.The results showed that this method can provide reference for the chemical industries to carry out the quantitative risk assessment of domino effect.