基于蜂巢格网的北部湾典型海岛景观生态风险空间异质性研究

基于北部湾典型海岛的景观格局指数数据，本文采用生态风险评价模型、空间自相关模型以及变异函数模型对不同海岛的生态风险进行了分析。结果发现:（1）七星岛生态风险的最佳拟合模型为高斯模型，其块金系数为0.06780，而团和岛为0.01225，表明七星岛景观格局主要受随机性因素的影响，而团和岛则受结构性因素的影响；（2）对团和岛可以适度开发，而七星岛则要适当保护；（3）团和岛生态风险指数值在空间上呈现出“东南部高，西南部低”的分布格局，而七星岛的生态风险指数值则呈现出“西高东低，南高北低”的分布格局；（4）岩性在海岛景观格局的形成过程中起关键作用，基岩岛岩石坚硬，景观格局具有一定的稳定性，泥沙岛以冲积物为主，景观格局易受到自然及人为因素的干扰。本文提出以地统计学理论为基础的海岛生态风险评价方法，可为广西北部湾海岛自然资源管理提供理论和方法上的借鉴。

Spatial heterogeneity of landscape ecological risk of typical islands in Beibu Gulf based on honeycomb grid

Based on the landscape pattern index data of typical islands in the Beibu Gulf, ecological risk assessment model, spatial autocorrelation model and variation function model was used to analyze the ecological risk of different islands. ① The best fitting model for ecological risk of Qixing island was Gauss model, and its nugget coefficient was 0.06780, while Tuanhe island was 0.01225. It showed that the landscape pattern index of Qixing island was mainly controlled by random factors, while Tuanhe island was controlled by structural factors. ② The Tuanhe island with structural factors can be moderately developed, while the Qixing island with random factors can be properly protected. ③ The ecological risk value of Tuanhe island showed a spatial pattern of “high in the southeast and low in the southwest ”, while the ecological risk value of Qixing island showed a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the west and low in the east, high in the south and low in the north ”. ④ The lithology played a key role in the formation of the island landscape pattern. The bedrock island was hard rock, and the landscape pattern had a certain stability; while the sediment island was the alluvium and the landscape pattern was easily disturbed by natural and man-made conditions. An ecological risk assessment method based on Geostatistics theory proposed in this paper can provide reference for the theory and method of island natural resource management in Beibu Gulf of Guangxi.