基于InVEST模型的鄱阳湖湿地生物多样性情景分析

生态系统服务与功能的评估越来越多地被应用到自然资源管理政策制定中。通过参与式评估框架(FoPIA)方法建立鄱阳湖湿地到2020年的不同土地利用情景,以此作为参数应用到生态系统服务与功能的评估权衡模型(InVEST),以鄱阳湖湿地指示性生物(越冬候鸟)的栖息地为研究对象,定量和空间化评估典型村落未来土地利用情景下候鸟栖息地质量和空间分布特征。结果表明:在生态保育情景下,受生态退耕等因素的影响,栖息地规模增加,人类胁迫活动减少,鄱阳湖湿地典型村落候鸟栖息地的平均质量提高到0.89,比现状水平提高27.0%;在经济发展情景下,人类活动范围的扩张使得候鸟栖息地受到的胁迫增强,栖息地的平均质量下降为0.57,比现状水平低14.0%;在自然增长情景下,候鸟栖息地平均质量为0.66,比现状水平增加了1.5%。

BIODIVERSITY SIMULATION OF POYANG LAKE WETLANDS BY INVEST MODEL UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

Assessment of ecosystem services are more and more applied in natural resource management. In this paper, we applied the FoPIA approch to build different land use/land cover scenarios in Poyang Lake wetlands by 2020. Then, we used the scenario parameters and land use/land cover indexes as input into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST). InVEST has been used to assess a typical village's habitat quality of migratory birds which is the biodiversity index of species in Poyang Lake wetlands. Results showed that: under the conversation scenario, the scale of habitat quality of migratory birds will be increased and the threat of human activities will be decreased obviously, influenced by ecological engineering, all these will making the average of habitat quality of the migratory birds in the typical village of Poyang Lake wetlands reach 0.89, showing an increase of 27.0%. Under the economic developing scenarios, human activities will be expanded and some of the superior quality habitat will be occupied by agriculture lands, therefore, the average habitat quality will decrease to 0.57, showing a decline of 14.0%. Under the nature developing scenarios, human activities will not change so much, and the average habitat quality is 0.66, showing an increase of 1.5%.