草甘膦农药泄漏事故风险评价研究

以草甘膦生产为例,在高斯扩散模型的基础上,考虑污染物在大气中的衰减,推导出评估大气突发性事故危害区的定量估算公式。该公式使用条件与高斯扩散模型相同,通过与高斯模式的验证分析,结果精确,可用于直接求取任意浓度等值线的精确位置。结合事故发生的概率、气象条件(包括风速、风向、稳定度)、周围的人口密度、有毒有害物质的半致死浓度计算了风险值。草甘膦生产中,储罐泄漏甲醇风险值9.9×10-4人/a。

STUDY ON ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF GLYPHOSATE LEAKAGE

The process of environmental risk assessment is determined by the example of producing glyphosate.To identify hazard sources objectively and evaluate hazard of various accidents on atmospheric environmental risk assessment,based on Gaussian diffusion model and rigid mathematics,a modeling system was developed to identify harm and estimate impaired region of accident and impaired duration of accident in atmospheric environment.These formulae are easy to use with exact results by the comparision of Gaussian diffusion model.This modeling system has the same conditions as Gaussian diffusion model,and can calculate any concentration isoline’s rigid time-space location and specific points location.The risk value is calculted according to possibity,atmospheric condition,density of population,LD50.