Storm surges: perspectives and options |
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Authors: | Hans von Storch Katja Woth |
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Institution: | (1) Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Max-Planck Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany;(2) Meteorologisches Institut, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany |
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Abstract: | This review paper attempts to summarize the scattered and fragmented knowledge about past and possible future changing storm-surge
statistics using the particularly well-studied case of the North Sea as an example. For this region, a complete and robust
analysis methodology has been developed in recent years. This methodology is based on dynamical and statistical models. Using
the concept of dynamical downscaling, development during recent decades, when sufficiently good and homogeneous weather data
exist, has been “reconstructed,” and scenarios of possible future change are described. “Localization” allows estimation of
changes at specific sites, e.g., harbors. As local water-level statistics depend not only on climate variations but also on
local modifications of the local bathymetry, new options for adaptation emerge. For the case of Hamburg, an option for such
future adaptations is discussed. |
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Keywords: | Storm surge North Sea Storms Localization Scenario Climate change |
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