我国空气质量健康指数的初步研究

收集我国16个城市2001~2010年每日PM10、SO2和NO2浓度和居民日死亡数,采用经典的时间序列研究方法和贝叶斯层次模型,分析在全国水平上各污染物与居民每日总死亡率的暴露反应关系,据此构建我国空气质量健康指数(AQHI).比较AQHI与现行空气污染指数(API)和空气质量指数(AQI)预测居民日死亡率的能力.结果显示,AQHI的构建公式为:AQHI=10/16.4×100×exp(0.00019×PM10)-1+exp (0.00061×NO2)-1].AQHI预测居民每日总死亡率、心血管疾病死亡率和呼吸系统疾病死亡率的强度和精确度均优于现行的API与AQI.

Air quality health index in China: a pilot study

Daily concentrations of PM10, SO2 and NO2 from 2001 to 2010 in 16 Chinese cities were collected to obtain the exposure-response relationships with daily mortality using the standard time series regression and Hierarchical Bayesian models. The coefficients of PM10-mortality association and NO2-mortality association were directly used to construct the air quality health index (AQHI). Then, the AQHI was validated by examining its ability to predict daily mortality and comparing this ability with existing air pollution index (API) and air quality index (AQI). The results showed the formula of AQHI was AQHI=10/16.4×100×exp(0.00019×PM10)-1+exp(0.00061×NO2)-1]. The magnitude of AQHI’s predictive ability was greater than API and AQI.