跨区电力传输对大气污染物和CO2的区域排放影响研究

跨区电力传输作为新的区域间能源调配形式将会改变我国未来各区域能源使用、大气污染物排放、温室气体排放等的发展路径,模拟、分析这种影响能为统筹协调全国以及区域的能源资源使用策略和电力行业节能减排相关政策提供参考.本研究应用基于区域电网的中国电力行业优化模型(BOMCES-ED),结合特高压输电线路的相关发展预期,以2010年我国各区域电网的发电装机信息为基准年数据,模拟研究了跨区电力传输对各区域电力行业发展以及环境排放造成的影响.结果显示,到2020年,最大的电力输出区域西北电网因电力输出而导致的电煤消耗量增加12351.2万t,SO2、NOx、CO2和Hg排放增加量分别达到22.1万t、11.6万t、2.28亿t和3.80t.由跨区电力传输导致的区域间环境排放和环境健康损失转移需要引起关注.

The impacts of inter-grid power transmission on regional emissions of air pollutants and CO2

As a new form of inter-regional energy transportation, the increasing inter-grid power transmissions will change the trajectories of regional energy consumptions, consequently, the emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. Modeling and analyzing these impacts can support policy makers with regard to national and regional energy strategies, as well as emission control policies. This study applied a multi-region bottom-up optimization model for China’s electricity sector (BOMCES-ED) to simulate the impacts of inter-grid power transmissions on regional emissions and power sector developments, using the electricity generation technology mix of 2010 as the base year dataset. Results show that Northwestern Grid, which is expected to export the most electricity according to the strategic planning of ultra-high voltage power transmissions, will have to increase its coal consumption for power generation in an amount of 123.51Mt, causing the emissions of SO2, NOx, CO2 and Hg within the grid grow by 0.221Mt, 0.116Mt, 227.5Mt and 3.80t respectively in 2020. It is suggested to pay more attentions to ease the potential conflicts in terms of environmental loss and health risk resulted from inter-grid power transmissions.