Socioeconomic Risks of Extreme El Niño Event-Related Road Damages in Peru |
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Authors: | Montaud Jean-Marc Dávalos Jorge Pécastaing Nicolas |
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Institution: | 1.Universite de Pau et Des Pays de L’Adour, E2S UPPA, CNRS, TREE, Collège EEI, 8 Allée des Platanes, 64100, Bayonne, France ;2.Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Perú ;3.Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) Network research fellow, Lima, Perú ; |
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Abstract: | This study evaluates the socioeconomic risk that extreme El Niño event-related road damages present to Peru by combining an environmental modelling of events’ occurrences in the country with a quantitative modelling of their effects on its economy. The dynamic of occurrence of events is modelled as a stochastic process with a vector autoregressive representation based on historical climatic data, and simulated over a 10-year period with a non-parametric bootstrap procedure. The indirect consequences of events’ related road damages are addressed with a multiregional dynamic computable general equilibrium model through an increase in interregional transportation costs and, more originally, a negative externality effect on activities’ output, which is estimated beforehand using a firm database. We find that extreme El Niño events constitute a significant one-off disaster risk for the country, threatening shifts of???2.8% in GDP and?+?1.9% in poverty rates with an annual probability p?=?1.4%. We further show that they also present a longer-term risk, leading to average annual deviations from normal trend by???0.8% in GDP and?+?0.4% in poverty rate with a probability p?=?12.6% over a 10-year period. However, we finally show that Peru might reduce these socioeconomic risks associated with these non-frequent but recurrent climatic shocks in constructing more disaster-resilient road infrastructure. |
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