液化天然气燃料动力船舶定量风险分析

近年来航运耗油产生的CO2排放量很大，发展液化天然气替代原有船舶动力成为需要。在中国天然气开发应用较晚，试点改造船舶存在安全隐患。分析了危险事件的一般导致原因，确定危害影响因子对改造船舶的设计和操作有指导作用。基于个人风险，分析了各类事故发生概率，选择了合适的后果模型，考察了长江气象条件，以芜湖某试点改造船进行了定量风险计算，得到了个人风险等值线，确定船体距离河道两边高敏感或特殊高密度场所不应小于20m，指出改用天然气作为船舶燃料后满足安全推荐标准要求。

Quantitative risk analysis to LNG-powered ship

In recent years, due to a great deal of CO2 emission in navigation, developing the technology of replacing oil with LNG as the fuel becomes necessary. In China, natural gas is developed and used later. There are some hid- den hazards in pilot rebuilt ships. Usual factors leading to hazardous events are analyzed. It is instructive to the re- built ship for designation and operation by determining the hazardous factors. Basic to individual risk, all kinds of accident probabilities are analyzed and proper computational models are chosen. Some a Wuhu pilot rebuilt ship is taken to compute the risk with the Yangtze River meteorological condition. Individual risk isoline is achieved. Make sure that it can＇t be under 20 dicates that it meets the safety meters from the ship to high sensitive or high population place beside the river. It in- standard after replacing oil with LNG as the fuel.