大宁河叶绿素a的因子分值-多元线性回归预测模型研究

自从2003年三峡水库蓄水以后，其支流大宁河水华频发且频率呈上升趋势。叶绿素a(Chla)是指示水体中浮游植物初级生产力的有效指标。采用因子分值-多元线性回归方法研究了大宁河水体11个相关水质因子与Chl a之间的相关关系。因子分析用于简化水质指标之间的相关性，以因子得分（Score values）为自变量用于多元线性回归分析中。结果发现log（Chla）与6个因子分值明显相关，所获得多元线性回归模型为：log(Chl a)=0.579-0191×(Score 1)-0.013×(Score 2)-0.013×(Score 3)+0042×(Score 4)+0134×(Score 5)-0.059×(Score 6)，相关系数 R= 0.731、相关系数的平方 R ²=0535，说明自变量可以解释因变量53.5%的差异性。实测数据验证结果表明：该模型能够较好的预测2010年1～10月水体中Chl a浓度的峰值和基本变化趋势

PREDICTION OF CHLOROPHYLL-A IN THE DANING RIVER BY PRINCIPAL COMPONENT SCORES IN MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

Since 2003 after impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir its tributary-Daning River began with frequent water blooms,and its frequency is increasing and expanding.Chlorophyll-a(Chl-a) is a well-accepted index for phytoplankton abundance and primary productivity in an aquatic environment.The relationships between Chl-a and 11 water quality indices in Daning River were studied by principal component scores in multiple linear regression analysis.Principal component analysis was used to simplify the complexity of...