三次指数平滑法在煤矿事故预测中的应用研究

随着我国煤炭工业的快速发展,煤矿事故频繁发生,安全生产形势依然严峻.针对煤矿事故的特点,根据我国1992-2011年煤矿事故死亡人数的统计数据,运用指数平滑法中的三次指数平滑法,建立煤矿事故预测模型,预测2012年、2013年的煤矿事故情况.结果表明,三次指数平滑法预测模型符合煤矿事故的特点,预测精度较高,适用于短期预测.由此可见,三次指数平滑法预测模型可对煤矿事故进行科学的预测与分析,为煤矿企业的安全管理提供依据,以最大限度地减少煤矿事故的发生.

Study on the application of cubic exponential smoothing method in coal mine accidents forecasting

With the rapid development of coal industry in China,coal mine accidents have occurred frequently,and the production safety situation remains grim.Aiming at the characteristics of coal mine accidents,according to the statistical data of death toll of coal mine accidents in China from 1991 to 2010,and using the method of cubic exponential smoothing,were foreasted a coal mine accidents forecasting model was established and the coal mine accidents situation of 2011 and 2012.The results showed that the cubic exponential smoothing method model was consistent with the characteristics of coal mine accidents,have a high precision,and could be used for short-term forecasting.Thus,the cubic exponential smoothing method model can be used to develop scientific forecasting and analysis of coal mine accidents and providing bases for the safety management of coal mines to minimize coal mine accidents.