Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainty in the simulated hydrological response to land use change |
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Authors: | L Breuer J A Huisman H-G Frede |
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Institution: | (1) Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35392 Giessen, Germany |
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Abstract: | We quantified the uncertainty in hydrological response for a set of land use change scenarios by varying plant parameters
within realistic uncertainty bounds in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results show that simulated hydrological fluxes significantly
change after the introduction of outwintering suckler cow management, despite the presence of a significant amount of output
uncertainty due to uncertainty in the plant parameterisation. The key to a proper uncertainty assessment was to consider the
uncertainty in the difference between the scenarios instead of the absolute uncertainty of each single scenario. Additionally,
a sensitivity analysis showed that changing soil properties in response to land use change does not result in significantly
different results in the scenario analysis. |
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Keywords: | uncertainty hydrological modelling Monte Carlo analysis land use change impact |
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