高精度区域气候模式对淮河流域降水的模拟评估

利用CCLM（COSMO model in Climate Mode）高精度区域气候模式输出的淮河流域逐日降水数据，计算了年降水量、降水强度、大雨日数和强降水量4个降水指数，首先通过与1961～2010年流域内气象站点的降水观测数据进行对比，检验CCLM模式对淮河流域降水的模拟能力。结果表明，CCLM模式能够很好的模拟淮河流域降水的年际变化和空间分布特征，在4个降水指数中，对年降水量的模拟效果最佳。CCLM模式在SRES-A1B（中排放）情景下的降水预估数据显示，2011～2050年淮河流域降水整体将呈增加趋势，增幅在70 mm之内，降水量年际变率较大，波动范围达-40%～60%，很有可能造成未来旱涝灾害的频繁发生。空间分布上，流域南部和中部在未来40年内降水呈增加趋势，增幅不超过67%，其他区域则呈减少趋势，减幅不超过106%

HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL(CCLM)FOR SIMULATION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HUAIHE RIVER BASIN,CHINA

In this paper,we observed, simulated and projected precipitation pattern in the Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2050.Using daily precipitation data simulated by a high resolution regional climate model(CCLM),four typical precipitation indices,i.e.PRCPTOT,SDII,R20mm,and P95pTOT,are calculated.The results are compared with the observed data from 1961 to 2010 in terms of temporal trends and spatial distribution,to test the ability of CCLM to simulate precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin.The results show that CCLM can well simulate the interannual variation of precipitation and its spatial distribution. Among the four precipitation indices,PRCPTOT is simulated best.Based on the SRES A1B scenario,the CCLM projections of precipitation are analyzed for the period of 2011-2050.The projected annual precipitation shows an increasing trend with a rise by 70 mm.The projected high interannual variability ranges within -40% to 60%.This indicates that extreme precipitation events might increase in the future.The spatial distribution of precipitation pattern in the southern and central basin shows a tendency to increase in the 40 years,by about 67%,while in the other areas a reduction of no more than 106% is apparent.Generally,the CCLM model can simulate the precipitation well,so the CCLM projections of precipitation have a certain reference value on the local water resources management.