A more accurate method using MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) to estimate emission burden for regional-level analysis

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is required by the EPA to replace Mobile 6 as an official on-road emission model. Incorporated with annual vehicle mile traveled (VMT) by Highways Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) vehicle class, MOVES allocates VMT from HPMS to MOVES source (vehicle) types and calculates emission burden by MOVES source type. However, the calculated running emission burden by MOVES source type may be deviated from the actual emission burden because of MOVES source population, specifically the population fraction by MOVES source type in HPMS vehicle class. The deviation is also the result of the use of the universal set of parameters, i.e., relative mileage accumulation rate (relativeMAR), packaged in MOVES default database. This paper presents a novel approach by adjusting the relativeMAR to eliminate the impact of MOVES source population on running exhaust emission and to keep start and evaporative emissions unchanged for both MOVES2010b and MOVES2014. Results from MOVES runs using this approach indicated significant improvements on VMT distribution and emission burden estimation for each MOVES source type. The deviation of VMT by MOVES source type is minimized by using this approach from 12% to less than 0.05% for MOVES2010b and from 50% to less than 0.2% for MOVES2014 except for MOVES source type 53. Source type 53 still remains about 30% variation. The improvement of VMT distribution results in the elimination of emission burden deviation for each MOVES source type. For MOVES2010b, the deviation of emission burdens decreases from ?12% for particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and ?9% for carbon monoxide (CO) to less than 0.002%. For MOVES2014, it drops from 80% for CO and 97% for PM_2.5 to 0.006%.

Implications: This approach is developed to more accurately estimate the total emission burdens using EPA’s MOVES, both MOVES2010b and MOVES2014, by redistributing vehicle mile traveled (VMT) by Highways Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) class to MOVES source type on the basis of comprehensive traffic study, local link-by-link VMT broken down into MOVES source type.