| 多米诺效应的风险分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张永强,相艳景,毛星,刘茂.多米诺效应的风险分析方法[J].安全与环境学报,2008,8(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张永强 相艳景 毛星 刘茂 |
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| 作者单位： | 南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071;南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071;南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071;南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划
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| 摘 要： | 介绍与分析多米诺效应的相关研究,并针对多米诺效应的定量风险分析,建立了从多米诺场景辨识到后果分析的多米诺效应定量分析方法.通过分析初始事故带来的物理效应对邻近设备的影响,计算了二次设备的损坏概率;分析了多米诺场景,计算了多米诺事故频率,并根据多米诺事故的后果得到个人风险和社会风险曲线.多米诺效应的风险是工业区一个潜在的严重风险,加强多米诺效应的研究对工厂和工业区的安全管理与规划都有重要意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 安全技术及工程 多米诺效应 风险 概率模型 事故场景 |
Review on the quantitative analysis of the domino effect risk assessment |
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| ZHANG Yong-qiang,XIANG Yan-jing,MAO Xing,LIU Mao.Review on the quantitative analysis of the domino effect risk assessment[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2008,8(6). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yong-qiang XIANG Yan-jing MAO Xing LIU Mao |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Yong-qiang,XIANG Yan-jing,MAO Xing,LIU Mao(Researcher Center of Urban Public Safety,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper presents the results of study to investigate and propose means of assessing the potential risk for a domino interaction between equipments/groups of sites. Domino effect,complex phenomena,is a well-known cause of severe accidents in the processing industry,and one accident may cause another accident in other installations nearby,and/or leading to a series of accidents. The probability of domino effect like accidents has been increased due to the adverse impacts of the increasing congestion in indu... |
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| Keywords: | safety technology & engineering domino effect risk probability model accident scene |
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