中国主要环境污染物与国内生产总值的相关性分析研究

根据中国31个省市2014年环境污染物与经济的数据,探讨各省市主要环境污染物排放量与GDP之间的关系,并建立二者的环境计量模型,分析31个省市的污染程度相似性。研究发现:中国各区GDP与废水排放总量、化学需氧量排放总量、氨氮排放总量、总氮、总磷以及氮氧化物排放总量相关性较大。GDP与废水总量的拟合曲线呈单调递增关系,与氨氮排放量拟合曲线呈倒"N"型。目前氨氮排放量随省市平均生产总值的增长而下降,GDP与其他四类污染物不存在明显曲线关系。

Analysis on Correlation between Major Pollutant Emissions and GDP in China

By selecting and using data on environmental pollutants and economy in China's 31 provinces and cities in 2014, this paper explored the relationship between environmental pollutant emissions and Gross Domestic Product(GDP)in China's prov-inces and cities. It established their environmental metering models, and analyzed the similarity of pollution levels in 31 prov-inces. It was found that China's GDP had a great correlation with the total discharge of wastewater,chemical oxygen,ammonia ni-trogen,total nitrogen,total phosphorus and nitrogen oxide. The fitting curve of GDP and wastewater was monotonically increas-ing,while the fitting curve of GDP and ammonia nitrogen was an inverted"N". At present,the ammonia nitrogen emission de-creased with the growth of the provincial average GDP,and there was no obvious curve relationship between GDP and other four kinds of pollutants.