Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems |
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| Authors: | Julie Clavreul Dominique Guyonnet Thomas H. Christensen |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark;2. BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex, France;1. System Analysis Department, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark;2. RAM-løse edb, Æblevangen 55, 2765 Smørum, Denmark;3. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Box 53021, SE-40014 Gothenburg, Sweden;4. Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden;1. INRA, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, UE0695, Domaine de Gotheron, F-26320 St-Marcel-lès-Valence, France;2. Agro-Transfert Ressources et Territoires, 2 Chaussée Brunehaut, F-80200 Estrees-Mons, France;1. Department of Sciences and Technologies, Parthenope University of Napoli, Napoli 80143, Italy;2. I.A.R., Department of Processing and Recycling, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen 52062, Germany;3. School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, China;1. Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macau, China;2. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;1. Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark;2. Technical University of Denmark, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Building 303B, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark |
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| Abstract: | Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties. |
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