应用CGE模型量化分析中国实施能源环境税政策的可行性

应用一个可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型对中国若干工业行业按照差别税率对所投入的煤炭和油气产品征收从价能源环境税的情况进行了量化模拟,预测了该项政策在中国实施的可行性;并在量化模拟和分析之后得出如下结论:即征收能源环境税有助于促进工业部门,尤其是能源密集型行业,节能、降耗、改善能源消费结构和削减SO2 和CO2 污染排放,但该项政策的实施并不能够从根本上促进能源利用效率的提高,反而易对宏观经济造成负面影响,因此在中国目前现阶段不宜作为主要能源环境政策备选方案

Quantitative Analysis on the Feasibility of Energy-Environment Tax Implementationin China with a CGE Model

In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was applied to quantitatively simulate the situation of implementing energy-environment tax according to different tax rates on different energy inputs of coal and oil/gas, and predicted the feasibility of implementing the policy in China. After the simulation and analysis, we got some conclusions as follows: implementing the policy could help to promote the industries, especially the energy-intensive industries, to save energy, optimize energy consumption structure, and abate SO_2 and CO_2 emissions, but it has little use to improve energy utilization efficiency, and generated negative impacts on macro-economy, therefore energy-environment tax is not fitful to be implemented as a main energy environmental policy nowadays in China.