基于GIS的城市特大火灾蔓延模拟

本文将对城市特大火灾的蔓延机理进行深入剖析，并构建火灾蔓延的半经验半理论模型。该模型包括两个子模型，其一为个体建筑火灾发展的简化模型，其二为建筑物间的火灾蔓延模型。前者简化了个体建筑内部火灾发展与蔓延的复杂过程，仅简单评价了个体建筑火灾发展所处的阶段，即起火、轰燃、充分发展与倒塌，并计算出各阶段相应的物理量。后者则是从建筑物间火灾蔓延的机理入手，借鉴已有模型对两种主要的火灾蔓延方式热辐射与热对流进行模型的简化和修正，并且量化了影响建筑物间火灾蔓延的气象条件。最后，作者提供了基于GIS的城市特大火灾蔓延模拟方案，并将模拟方案用于对日本1995年阪神地震后神户市高桥医院周边一处起火进行火灾蔓延模拟，再将模拟结果与实际火灾蔓延结果进行对比，从对比中充分体现出模型的有效性。

The GIS-based Simulation of Urban Mass Fire Spread

In this paper, urban mass fire-spread would be studied and modeled by the authors. Firstly, the authors analyzed the mechanisms of urban mass fire-spread deeply and then proposed an empirical-and-physical fire-spread model. This model is composed of two sub-models, one is the simplified model of fire development in a single building, and another is the model of inter-building fire-spread. In order to simplify the complicated process of fire-spread in rooms, the former sub-model only judges the building's fire stages, i.e. ignition, flashover, full-development and collapse, and estimates their corresponding physical parameters. According to the mechanisms of inter-building fire-spread, the latter sub-model formulates two main fire-spread ways, i.e. thermal radiation and thermal plume heating, respectively by simplifying and modifying pervious theory-based models. Additionally, it also quantifies the weather conditions which have great effect on inter-building fire-spread. Finally, the authors proposed a GIS-based simulation scheme for urban mass fire-spread and employed it in a specific ignition near to Gaoqiao Hospital after Hansin earthquake (1995, Japan) for fire-spread simulation. From the comparison between the simulated results and real investigation it is proved that the models for urban mass fire-spread have satisfying effectiveness.