近十年中国民航事故及事故征候的统计分析

对1996—2005年我国民航发生的32起事故及1147起事故征候进行统计分析,其结果表明:我国民航事故和事故征候的万架次率及万时率均呈下降态势,机组、机械和机务原因是我国民航事故和事故征候的主要原因,事故征候的主要类型是鸟击、空中停车、偏出/冲出跑道/场外接地,事故征候发生阶段依次为巡航、起飞、着陆、爬升和进近。该研究成果有助于寻找事故和事故征候成因和规律。明确安全管理重点和难点;采取有效的预警和预控对策。

Statistic Analysis on Accidents and Incidents in the Last Decade in China Civil Aviation

32 accidents and 1 147 incidents from 1996 to 2005 in China civil aviation were analyzed by the statistic method. It demonstrated that the accident and incident rate per 10 thousand aircraft and that per 10 thousand hours had an inclination of decrease; crew, machine, maintenance are main causes for these accidents and incidents; most of incidents are caused by bird strike, shutdown in air, runway excursion, overshooting, undershooting; the phases of incident in order are cruising, taking-off, landing, climbing and approaching. This research is very helpful to find out the causes and rules of aviation accidents and incidents, to definite the emphases and difficulties of safety management and to take effective measures and pre-warnings.