区域社会经济发展与生态环境耦合关系研究模型的比较分析

社会经济发展与环境资源相协调是可持续发展的重要途径,判断当前区域社会经济发展与生态环境间的耦合关系是建立有效协调机制的关键。本文从发展、机理方法和应用实例等方面系统介绍了目前在社会经济发展与生态环境之间耦合关系研究中主要的3类模型:计量经济学模型(环境库兹涅茨曲线)、耦合度定量判断模型(包括灰色关联度分析和数理模型)和系统动力学模型。通过3类模型机理和应用情况的对照分析,总结各自优劣势,并认为具有多情景分析和多方案执行评估能力的神经网络模型将成为未来发展趋势。

Comparison of Models for Coupled Relation between Regional Social-economic Development and Ecological Environment

The coordination between the social-economic development and the environment and resources is an important approach to realize sustainable development.While judging the coupled relation between present regional social-economic development and ecological environment is a key to establish effect coordination mechanism.In this paper,from the respects of development,mechanism method and real cases,three models are introduced,i.e.,Econometrics model（Environmental Kuznets Curve,EKC）,model of quantitative judgment for coupling degree（including gray relation analysis and mathematical model） and system dynamic model.By comparison of the mechanism and application of the three models,individual advantages and disadvantages are summarized respectively.It suggests that the neural network models with multi-scenario analysis and multi-plan to implement will become the trend of future development.