Relation of Lake Acidification and Recovery to Fish,Common Loon and Common Merganser Occurrence in Algoma Lakes

Models are needed that predict both spatial and temporal improvements to ecosystems following reductions of acidifying emissions that produce `acid rain'. Logistic regression models were developed for the occurrence of fish and two fish-eatingbirds, common loons (Gavia immer) and common mergansers(Mergus merganser), using monitoring data collected onlakes across Ontario. These models were applied in the Algomaregion, including the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW). Using theWaterfowl Acidification Response Modeling System (WARMS), severalSO₂ emission reduction scenarios were simulated, i.e. thosecontributing to measured 1982–1986 sulphate deposition levels, 1994levels (corresponding to full implementation of Canadian SO₂emission reductions as stipulated in the 1991 Canada/U.S. AirQuality Agreement), 2010 levels (1994 plus full U.S. reductions),and both a 50% and a 75% further reduction beyond 2010 levels. Some habitat improvements in Algoma were predicted under the 2010scenario for all biota, but substantial increases in habitatquality, especially for mergansers, would occur only under further reductions. The TLW showed little change in chemistry orbiota, while lakes near the Montreal River were predicted toimprove substantially.