土地资源对珠三角地区人口增长的约束分析

改革开放以来，随着经济高速发展，大量外来人口涌入珠三角地区。1979─2012年间，珠三角地区的常住人口从1797.42万人增至5681.70万人。大规模的人口增长使得珠三角地区的资源供给压力增大，特别是土地资源。2010年珠三角地区已开发的建设用地面积为8867 km2，其中深圳、东莞等城市的建设用地规模已经接近其土地资源的适宜开发上限，土地资源对人口增长的约束作用也日趋显著。为了评判珠三角地区土地资源压力对人口增长的影响，利用Malthus模型和Logistic模型分别对该地区9个城市的人口变化进行拟合，结果表明，2组模型对2000年前各城市的人口变化均有较高的拟合精度且拟合结果与实际情况较为相近，主要是由于该地区早期发展阶段的资源压力对人口增长的约束作用较小。2000年以后不同城市的Logistic模型与Malthus模型对人口变化预测呈现出不同的趋势，主要与各城市的土地资源压力密切相关。根据2组模型模拟结果的差异和土地资源的压力，将9个城市分为3组。其中深圳、东莞为第一组，这2个城市的人口增速最快、土地资源压力最大，相应的Malthus模型的估计值分别在2003年、2005年超过了实际人口，且其后估计值与实际值的差距逐渐增大。依据Malthus模型2020年深圳、东莞的人口预测值分别为6469.58万人、2386.81万人，这大大超过了这2个城市的资源环境承载极限。这一结果说明在深圳、东莞的人口高速增长已经不可持续，Malthus模型已不能反映其未来人口的变化趋势。第二组包括广州、佛山、珠海和中山4个城市。这组城市的人口增速相对缓慢，Malthus模型的估计值与实际人口较为接近，但2010年以来这4个城市人口的增长呈放缓趋势，Malthus模型估计值逐渐偏大。第三组城市包括人口增速最慢的江门、惠州和肇庆3个城市。这组城市的人口?

Analysis on the Constraint of Land Resource on Population in Pearl River Delta

Since the reforming and opening-up, lots of immigrants have crowed into the Pearl River Delta （PRD） due to the regional high-rate economic growth. As a result, the residential population of PRD increased from 17.97 million in 1979 to 56.82 million in 2012. Under the stimulus of the population growth, the built-up land expanded dramatically, with the total built-up land acreage reaching 8857 km2 in 2010. In some well-developed cities, such as Shenzhen and Dongguan, there is few land resource available for accommodating more population, and their population growths have been slowed down significantly since 2000. To analyze the land resource constraint on the population growth, Malthus and Logistic models are applied to all nine cities in PRD and the results show that before 2000, the fitting curves of the two models are similar and both models can describe the changes precisely. To model population changes after 2000 and predict future population growths, the two models yield significantly different results due to the significant differences in the land resource pressure of the nine cities. According to the differences in land resource pressure, the nine cities in PRD are classified into three groups. The first group includes Shenzhen and Dongguan, which are experiencing the rapidest population growth and so have the highest land resource pressure. As a result, the Malthus models of Shenzhen and Dongguan yield populations larger than the actual populations of the two cities respectively from 2003 and 2005, and the differences increase sharply since then. According to the Malthus models, there will be 64.70 million residents in Shenzhen and 23.87 million in Dongguan in 2020, which clearly exceed the carrying capacity of the two cities. This indicates that the high-rate population growth in the two cities is unsustainable and the Malthus models cannot reflect their future trends. For cities in the second group, including Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhuhai and Zhongshan, the land resource pressure is significant but less t