Sensitivity of atmospheric dispersion simulations by HYSPLIT to the meteorological predictions from a meso-scale model |
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Authors: | Venkata Srinivas Challa Jayakumar Indrcanti Julius M Baham Chuck Patrick Monika K Rabarison John H Young Robert Hughes Shelton J Swanier Mark G Hardy Anjaneyulu Yerramilli |
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Institution: | (1) Trent Lott Geospatial and Visualization Research Centre, Jackson State University, 1230 Raymond Road, Jackson, MS 39217-204, USA |
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Abstract: | Mesoscale transport and dispersion of air pollutants from a few major point sources in the Mississippi Gulf coastal region
is calculated using a coupled modeling system consisting of the atmospheric dynamical model WRF and the lagrangian particle
model HYSPLIT. The sensitivity of the dispersion model results to the meteorological fields is studied by conducting an ensemble
of simulations using the WRF model for the same dispersion case. Several parameterization schemes for the physical processes
of boundary layer turbulence and land surface temperature/moisture prediction in WRF are used in various combinations to produce
different meteorological members which are then used for dispersion simulation. The uncertainty in the simulated concentration
probabilities to the meteorological model configurations and the ensemble mean are presented. The parameters used for determining
the uncertainties include the wind fields, temperature, area of concentration and the levels of concentration. The results
indicate that dispersion model results are influenced by the choices made in respect of the planetary boundary layer and land
surface schemes in the mesoscale model to produce the meteorological forecast thereby leading to certain amount of uncertainty
in the resultant concentrations. Results show that the specific choices made about the atmospheric model configuration can
significantly after the simulated concentrations. |
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Keywords: | Meso scale Atmospheric dispersion WRF HYSPLIT Sensitivity |
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