Possible future trade-offs between agriculture, energy production, and biodiversity conservation in North Dakota

In this study, we describe a spatially explicit scenario analysis of global change effects on the potential future trade-offs and conflicts between agriculture, energy generation, and grassland and wetland conservation in North Dakota (ND), USA. Integrated scenarios combining global policy, oil security, and climate change were applied to North Dakota using a spatial multi-criteria analysis shell. Spatial data describing climate changes and grassland, wetland, cropland, and energy distributions were used to characterize the geographical environment. The final multi-criteria framework examined the potential trade-offs between climate change, agricultural expansion, and energy generation resulting from global change scenarios on one hand, and the current footprint of wetlands and grasslands for six regions of ND that capture the major climate gradients and differences in land use. The results suggest that the tension between regional climate changes that may limit agricultural expansion, and global changes in food and energy security and commodity prices that favor agricultural expansion, may focus a zone of potential pressure on grasslands and wetland conversion in central ND and the Prairie Pothole Region. The balance between conservation programs, commodity prices, and land parcel productivity may determine grassland conversion, while wetland outcomes may almost totally depend upon regional climate change.