中国经济增长对碳排放的影响分析

通过相关分析探讨了中国国内生产总值(GDP)的增长与碳排放量的关系.结果表明,二者有明显的相关性(R2＝0.958 1).进一步研究认为,由于中国投资率在35%～40%以上,且工业增加值占GDP的比重超过50%,因此中国过分依赖投资的经济增长方式和以第二产业(工业)为主的经济结构在很大程度上是导致温室气体排放量增加的主要原因.未来在全球化背景下,经济增长可转变为更多地依靠科技创新、技术进步和制度的改进,因此,调整经济增长方式和产业结构,可以在保持发展经济的同时,使碳排放强度呈逐渐下降的趋势.

Economic growth and its effects on carbon emission in China

This paper intends to present the authors' analysis of the relationship between the GDP growth and carbon emission in China today with the correlative analytical method(R2=0.958 1).The authors' conclusion is that the present economic development pattern mainly dependent on the investment and structural expansion of secondary industry has strong impact on the emission increase of greenhouse gas.The investment rate of China exceeds 35%-40% of GDP during the period of 1980 to 2003,which is higher than other countries.As a result,China has brought about tremendous development of its heavy industry with ever increasing consumption of energy resources.Such a consequence,on the one hand,has led to higher proportion of secondary industry to the whole macro-economy(over 50%).On the other hand,its energy consumption has to be dependent heavily on coal(over 60%),which emits large amounts of gases than oil or natural gas.Thus,it will be inevitable to consume more energy and increase the emission of greenhouse gases in future.However,under the background of globalization,our economic growth should depend more on technological improvement,scientific and institutional innovation.With the high efficient use of renewable energy and environment-friendly technology,China can and is sure to make contributions to global efforts to prevent global warming.Therefore,it can be predicted that the carbon emission intensity will gradually slow down with the economic development and the adjustment of its industrial structural system.