江苏省环境与人口、经济的协调发展分析——基于环境安全视角

协调发展既是国民经济乐观发展的客观要求，同时也是人类可持续发展不可或缺的组成部分。江苏省协调发展问题的研究有利于解决环境问题的定位，发现环境发展中的薄弱点与发展潜力，促进环境与人口、经济的协调发展。以环境安全理论为依托，以强调协调发展为出发点，建立江苏省环境与人口、经济系统的协调发展指标体系，应用改进的层次分析法（AHP）及变异系数法权重均值赋权，借鉴模糊数学中隶属度函数来计算协调系数。结果表明：2001~2010年江苏省环境与人口、经济系统的平均协调水平处于基本协调状态，并且有稳中上升的趋势，协调发展前景乐观；同时分析并提出了建立健全江苏省协调发展机制、探讨环境安全维护体系建设、制订缓解人口压力政策等建议

COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION AND ECONOMY IN JIANGSU PROVINCE——BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

The coordinated development is not only the objective requirement of the national economic development, but also an indispensable part of the sustainable development. Since the reform and opening up, the local government of Jiangsu Province has gradually taken the sustainable development into consideration under the condition of the rapid economic development. At the same time, corresponding measures are also taken actively to control environmental pollution by the local government, which devotes to establish the resource saving and environment friendly society. However, Jiangsu Province is still suffering from imbalance and incoordination in the course of development of economy, society and environment. Therefore, analysis of coordinated development in Jiangsu Province is beneficial to the environmental problems positioning, find out the weak points and development potential of the environment, and promote the coordinated development among environment, population and economy. Based on the theory of environmental security, the author puts emphasis on the environmental coordination development, puts focus on establishing the index system of the coordinated development of environment, population and economy in Jiangsu Province.The index system is composed of the environmental safety subsystem and the environmental impact subsystem, including a total of 31 indexes. Through using the improved AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and variation coefficient method to weight the indexes，we can get the coordinate coefficient by membership functions in the fuzzy mathematics. The results show that, from 2001 to 2010, Jiangsu is in the general coordinated state with the going up trend，although there are fluctuations in coordination coefficient. Therefore the coordinated development is optimistic in Jiangsu Province. Through careful analysis, some corresponding suggestions are given as follows:(1) Focus on improving the coordination development mechanism of environment, population and economy. Considering coordinated development strategy is an important part of sustainable development,and it should be introduced into the development strategy of Jiangsu Province as soon as possible. Then the government should try to make its own coordinated development policy of environment, population and economy in accordance with Jiangsu local conditions. (2) Environmental security maintenance system is proposed to maintain the environmental security in Jiangsu Province. It mainly consists of monitoring system, evaluation system and early warning system. Especially the early warning system, it could help to forewarn immediately when the factors threatening the environmental security arise. In this circumstance, effective measures should be taken in time by the local government to guarantee the environmental security. (3)New population policy should be made exactly to keep the population within a reasonable range. In addition, it is also absolutely necessary to perfect the population transfer policy, through encouraging people to transfer to small and medium sized cities to achieve the appropriate distribution of population and properly population flow. (4) The adjustment and upgrade of industrial structure should be accelerated. And the energy saving and a higher level of industrial structure should be developed