“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动效应:基于北京市可计算一般均衡模型分析

“煤改气”是我国大气污染防治行动计划的政策措施之一，国内外目前对“煤改气”政策实施的环境效果研究较多，但对“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动作用研究较少. 为综合评价“煤改气”政策的整体效果、探讨“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动作用，以北京市为例，构建了北京市可计算一般均衡模型(MRDR-BJ)，基于2017年北京市投入产出表，模拟不同情景下“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动效应. 结果表明:随着“煤改气”投资的增加，北京市宏观经济增加值、温室气体排放量、就业量、家庭收入均增加；“煤改气”投资每增加20%，这些宏观指标分别增长0.05%、0.07%、0.07%和0.07%；“煤改气”投资对宏观经济的拉动系数为1.77. 研究显示，“煤改气”投资对宏观经济具有较大的拉动效应，建议全国各地尽快落实“煤改气”规划，以加快大气污染治理、促进生态环境建设，助力我国碳达峰、碳中和中长期目标的实现. 

Pulling Effect of 'Coal to Gas ' Investment on Regional Economy: Based on Beijing General Equilibrium Analysis

‘Coal to gas’ is one of the main policies of China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan. Although there are some shortcomings in the implementation of this policy, the economic and environmental effects of the policy cannot be ignored. At present, there are many studies on the environmental effects of the implementation of the ‘coal to gas’ policy, but there are few studies on the driving effects of investment on the regional economy. Based on the 2017 input-output table of Beijing, a computable general equilibrium model MRDR-BJ for Beijing is constructed and the driving effect of ‘coal-to-gas’ investment on the economy under different scenarios is simulated. The simulation results found that for every 20% increase in ‘coal-to-gas’ investment, the regional economic added value, greenhouse gas emissions, employment and household income would increase by 0.05%, 0.07%, 0.07% and 0.07%, respectively. The economic pull coefficient of ‘coal to gas’ investment is 1.77. In view of the pulling effect of the ‘coal to gas’ investment, it is recommended that local governments implement the ‘coal to gas’ plan as soon as possible to accelerate the regional environmental and ecological improvement, and contribute to the emission peak and carbon neutrality goals.