Potential Impact of Afforestation on Water Yield in the Subalpine Region of Southwestern China1

Abstract: To combat its growing ecological problems, China has implemented a large‐scale Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP). Under the umbrella of this program, the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) was established in 1999 to return cultivated land with slopes of 25° or more to perennial vegetation. However, the regional impacts on water resource management that are incurred by afforestation have not been carefully evaluated, especially in the subalpine region of southwestern China. The purpose of the present study was to provide reference values for the SLCP by evaluating the potential impact of afforestation on water yield under different climatic regimes. Accordingly, evapotranspiration (ET) in cropland (CL), shrubland, and general forest was calculated using a modification of Thornthwaite’s method, and in coniferous forest, broad‐leaved forest (BF), and mixed coniferous and broad‐leaved forest (MF) using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model. The results of both approaches showed that afforestation reduces water yield by 9.6‐24.3% depending on the types of conversion and climatic conditions. Water‐yield reduction is greatest (>143.4 mm, or 24.3%) when CL is converted to BF in dry climate conditions. Compared with the other forest types studied, coniferous plantations prevented water‐yield reduction by as much as 9.6% because of their relatively low levels of ET. It is expected that implementation of the SLCP, together with continuing climate change, will further pressure regional water resources. Thus, the effectiveness of afforestation must be evaluated in a broader context while taking into account its positive ecological aspects, such as soil‐erosion control, the preservation of biodiversity, and the significant carbon sequestration provided by forests.