| 基于模糊马尔可夫链状原理的灾害预测——以新亚欧大陆桥新疆段为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐海量,陈亚宁.基于模糊马尔可夫链状原理的灾害预测——以新亚欧大陆桥新疆段为例[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):100-103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐海量 陈亚宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展项目(G1999043504);新疆重点科技项目(98013010) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据新亚欧大陆桥新疆段近40年灾害统计资料，基于模糊马尔可夫链状预测的方法与原理，通过模糊状态的划分和模糊运算，根据隶属度最大原则，确定所属的状态，对新疆段受损区段数进行了预测，预测准确率为75％，取得了预期的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 新亚欧大陆桥 模糊马尔可夫链 灾害预测 隶属度 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4574(2001)04-0100-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年4月3日 |
Forecast of environmental hazards by fuzzy Markovian chain theory: taking Xinjiang line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as an example |
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| XU Hai-liang,CHEN Ya-ning.Forecast of environmental hazards by fuzzy Markovian chain theory: taking Xinjiang line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as an example[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,10(4):100-103. |
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| Authors: | XU Hai-liang CHEN Ya-ning |
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| Abstract: | According to the statistic data on hazards occurred in Xinjiang line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge in recent 40 years, the number of dameged sectors in Xinjiang line is analyzed and forecasted by using fuzzy-Markovian chain forecasting method and principle. First, based on the analysis of the characteristics of time-sequence distribution of damaged situation, the damaged grade was determined by fuzzy state division and fuzzy operation of damaged frequency in Xinjiang line; Then each state of damaged situation was defined according to its maximum principle; And at last the damaged situation in future was forecasted. The accuracy of the forecast is about 75%. Re-sult shows that the method presented above in this paper is accurate, scientific and practical. |
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| Keywords: | New Eurasian Continental Bridge fuzzy-Markovian chain forecast |
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