能源足迹变化的多因素影响效应研究——以吉林省为例

采用对数平均迪氏指数法构建能源足迹因素分解模型,定量分析1994—2008年吉林省能源足迹变化的主要影响因素及其效应特征。结果表明,1994—2008年,吉林省人均能源足迹从0.228 hm2增至0.524 hm2。在能源足迹增长的抑制因素中,能源强度效应占84.54%,排放因子效应占15.46%;在能源足迹增长的促进因素中,经济产出效应占91.39%,能源结构效应占4.30%,人口规模效应占3.73%,土地固碳效应占0.57%。以经济产出因素为主导的正效应明显大于以能源强度因素为主导的负效应,两者之比为1.73∶1,叠加表现为对能源足迹增长的促进作用,导致其总体呈递增趋势。此外,在正、负效应的双变量格局下,能源足迹呈复合曲面分布。目前减缓吉林省能源足迹增长的重点在于通过技术进步促进能源强度下降,同时需调整能源结构以发挥其应有的抑制作用。

Effects of Multiple Factors on Changes in Energy Eco-Footprint: A Case Study of Jilin

The logarithmic mean divisia index method was used to build up a model,i.e.energy eco-footprint affecting factor analyzer,for quantitative analysis of major factors affecting the energy eco-footprint in Jilin from 1994 to 2008.It was found that the energy eco-footprint increased from 0.228 hm2 in 1994 to 0.524 hm2 in 2008.Among the affecting factors,energy intensity and carbon emission were two major inhibitors of energy eco-footprint,contributing 84.54% and 15.46%,respectively of the total effect.Conversly,economic output,energy structure,population size and carbon sequestration were promoters,contributing 91.39%,4.30%,3.73% and 0.57%,respectively,of the total effect.As a whole,the economic output dominated positive effect was estimated to be 1.73 times as much as the negative effect dominated by energy intensity,thus being a stimulus to increase the energy eco-footprint.In addition,with the positive and negative effects being two variables,the energy eco-footprint was distributed as a complex curved surface.It is,therefore concluded that currently the key to slowing down the energy eco-footprint in Jilin is to promote technological development so as to reduce energy intensity,and to readjust energy structure for bringing its negative effect into full play.