暴雨泥石流预报程式

论述了暴雨泥石流预报的４个基本原理，即现象可预报性原理、成困分类组合原理、判别因素简化原理和预报决策依据原理。对泥石流时间预报模型作了分类，提出了通过泥石流活动周期与降水量周期叠加，建立泥石流活动性的长期趋势预测模型；通过泥石流活动年数频次与降水量丰欠等级频次组合，建立泥石流活动年份频次的态势预测模型；根据月或旬雨量确定泥石流发生的阈值关系，建立年内月或旬泥石流发生频次的中期预报模型；由短期天气预

Forecast models of rainstorm debris flows

The paper presents four basic principles for forecasting rainfall debris flow, i.e., the principles for phenomenon predictability, genetic classification, discriminant factor simplification and forecast decision respectively. And the forecast models are classified. Based on superposition of periods of activity and precipitaton, the long-term trend predicting model is set up; Based on combination of frequentes of yearly activity and precipitation gradation, the state predicting model of frequency is set up; Relation between the monthly or ten-day precipitation and the threshold of occurrence is determined, the medium-term forecast model of frequency of each month or each ten-dan in a year is put foward; Based on the short-term weather information, the short-term danger discriminant rule, the method of zoning danger area, the model of assessing gullies, and the probability model of calculating danger strength (occarrence gullies) are introduced. The models mentioned are of applicability, generality, and operability.