A statistical approach to estimating driver responsibility in two-car crashes

A statistical model is developed relating driver age distributions in one-car and two-car crashes to the probability that both of the drivers in a two-car crash are similarly responsible for the crash as are drivers in a single-car crash. The model is applied to (a) passenger car crashes in the years 1975–1980 involving a driver fatality, compiled in the U.S. Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), and (b) all police-reported crashes occurring in North Carolina in 1979, supplied by the North Carolina Highway Safety Research Center. Appropriate national and North Carolina driver license data are used to estimate exposure to potential crashes as a function of driver age. The model is found to provide an adequate fit to observed driver age distribution in two-car crashes for both data sets. The results obtained from this fit to the model equations indicate that for two-car crashes involving a driver fatality, both drivers contribute to the responsibility for the crash in about 40% of cases, but for less severe two-car crashes, only one of the two involved drivers is generally responsible.